Dinámica del crecimiento sectorial: compensación de desigualdades y sostenibilidad en Centroamérica
Barra lateral del artículo
Publicado:
jul 19, 2024
Palabras clave:
Centroamérica, Pobreza Extrema, Crecimiento económico, Desigualdad, Amortiguación, ARDL, Elasticidades a corto y largo plazo
Contenido principal del artículo
Resumen
Este estudio se ocupa de las interrelaciones entre la desigualdad, la reducción de la pobreza extrema y el crecimiento económico, y estima el impacto amortiguador en el crecimiento económico y en las tasas de pobreza extrema utilizando los datos a nivel anualizado de los países centroamericanos. Estas complejidades dinámicas, se analizan dentro del enfoque de pruebas de límites de retardo distribuido autorregresivo a la cointegración. Los resultados muestran que cuando la reducción de la pobreza extrema se descompone en dos impactos separados, el impacto del crecimiento sobre la reducción de la pobreza fue disminuido por la incidencia de la desigualdad de altos ingresos. El impacto amortiguador total de la desigualdad, varía de 1,1522% para El Salvador a 2,0589% para Honduras, debido a un aumento de 1% en la desigualdad. La reducción de las desigualdades puede ser doblemente beneficiosa para los pobres extremos de los países centroamericanos. La magnitud de los cambios en la reducción de la pobreza depende de las especificidades de cada país, lo que lleva a la aplicación de una estrategia de reducción de la pobreza extrema diferente a los distintos países.
Descargas
Los datos de descargas todavía no están disponibles.
Detalles del artículo
Cómo citar
Vanegas Sr, M. A. (2024). Dinámica del crecimiento sectorial: compensación de desigualdades y sostenibilidad en Centroamérica. Revista De Fomento Social, (309), 293–319. https://doi.org/10.32418/rfs.2024.309.5775
Sección
Estudios
Los autores afirman reconocer que la Revista de Fomento Social asume como suyos los derechos de propiedad intelectual sobre sus trabajos y otorgan a la revista los permisos de distribución y comunicación pública de los mismos establecidos en las declaraciones de Berlin, Bethesda y Budapest; razón por la cual aceptan que el trabajo que se presenta sea distribuido en acceso abierto, resguardando los derechos de autor bajo una licencia “Creative Commons Reconocimiento-NoComercial-SinObraDerivada 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
Se puede copiar, usar, difundir, transmitir y exponer públicamente siempre que:
Citen la autoría del trabajo, la publicación en Revista de Fomento Social, número, año y las páginas en la que encontraron la información.
No se puede obtener ningún beneficio comercial.
No se pueden realizar obras derivadas con fines comerciales que no autorice la revista.
Se anima a los autores a difundir el artículo vía electrónica (Revista de Fomento Social, número, año, paginación, ISSN, DOI, etc.), para favorecer su circulación y difusión, aumentar en su citación y alcance entre la comunidad académica.
La información de la revista se facilitará a Dulcinea
Citas
Adams, R.H. (2004). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: estimating the growth elasticity of poverty. World Development, 32, 1989-2014.
Adelman, I., and Morris, C.T. (1973). Economic growth and social equity in developing countries. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Ahluwalia, M.S. (1976). Inequality, poverty and development. Journal of Development Economics, 3(4), 307-342.
Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 716-723.
Ali, W., Abdullah, A., and Azam, M. (2017). Re-visiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Malaysia: Fresh evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 77, 990-1000.
Attanasio, O., and Binelli, (2004). Inequality, growth and redistributive policies. Proceedings of the AFD-EUDN conference, pp, 179-213, Agence Française de Developpement.
Ayad, H. (2016). Poverty, inequality and economic growth in Algeria: An ARDL approach. Journal of Social and Economic statistics, 5(1), 1-20.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.M., and Goswami, G.G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 102-113.
Bayer, C., and Hanck, C. (2013). Combining non-cointegration tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34, 83-95.
Benhabib, J., and Rustichini, A. (1996). Social conflict and growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 125-142.
Bourguignon, F. (2003). The growth elasticity of poverty reduction: explaining heterogeneity across countries and time periods. In Eicher, T.S., and Turnovsky, S.J., eds, Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp, 3-26.
Bourguignon, F. (2004). The poverty-growth-inequality triangle. Working Paper No. 125, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
Breusch, T. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Journal of Australia Economic Papers, 17, 334-355.
Brown, R.J., Durbin, J., and Evans, J. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of Royal Statistics Society, B37, 149-163.
Cingano, F. (2014). Trends in income inequality and its impact on economic growth. OECD SEM Working paper No. 163, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 9(4), 1057-1071.
ECLAC. (2022). Social Panorama of Latin America, 2021. (LC/PUB.2021/17-p), Santiago, Chile
Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T., and Stock, J. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987-1007.
Fosu, A. K. (2017). Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence. Research in Economics, 71(2), 306-336.
Gallo, C. (2002). Economic growth and income inequality: Theoretical background and
empirical evidence. Working Paper No. 119, London: Development Planning Unit,
University College London.
Gelaw, F. (2010). The dynamic relationship among poverty, inequality, and growth in rural Ethiopia: A micro evidence. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 2(5), 197-208.
Gini, C. (1912). Variabilitá e mutabilitá: contributo allo studio delle distribuzioni e delle relazioni statistiche. Bologna: Tipografia di Paolo Cuppini.
Harris, R., and Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. West Sussex: Wiley.
Iniquez-Montiel, A.J., and Kurosacki, T. (2018). Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico. Latin American Review, 27(12), 1-25.
Jarque, C.M., and Bera, A.K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6, 255-259.
Jalil, A., and Ma, Y. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan and China. Journal of Economic Cooperation among Islamic Countries, 29, 29-68.
Kaldor, N. (1956). Alternative theories of distribution. Review of Economic Studies, 23(2), 83-100.
Kalwrij, A., and Verschoor, A. (2007). Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction. European Economic Review, 51(4), 805-829.
Karagiannaki, E. (2017). The empirical relationship between poverty and inequality in rich and middle-income countries. CASE paper 206/ LIP paper 3, London: Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review XLV(1), 1-28.
Lee J., and Strazicich, M. (2003a). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, 33(4), 2483-2492.
Lee J., and Strazicich, M. (2003b). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economic Statistics, 85, 1082-1089.
Mansi, E., Hysa, E., Panait, M., and Voica, M.C. (2020). Poverty-A challenge for economic development? Evidences from Western Balkan countries and the European Union. Sustainability, 12(7754), 1-24.
Menegaki, A.N. (2019). The ARDL method in the energy growth nexus field: Best implementation strategy. Economies, 7(105), 1-16.
Mphuka, C., Kaonga, O., and Tembo, M. (2017). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: Estimating the growth elasticity of poverty in Zambia, 2006-2015. International Growth Center, reference number: F-41302-ZMB-1.
Narayan, P.K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence for cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
Narayan, P.K. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the Bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: An application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Department of Economics, Discussion Papers, ISSN 1441-5429 No. 02/04, Monash University, Victoria Australia.
Nasir, A.B. M., and Mridha, H.A. (2017). Does income inequality dampen growth effect on poverty? Evidence from the US county data. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(4), 167-177.
Papanek, G., and Kyn, O. (1986). The effect on income distribution of development, the growth rate and economic strategy. Journal of Development Economics, 23(1), 55-65.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of
level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Pesaran, M.H., and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive econometric analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Ramsey J.B. (1969). Test for specification errors in classical linear test squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 31(Series B), 350-371.
Ravallion, M. (2005). A poverty-inequality trade-off? Journal of Economic Inequality, 2005(3), 169-181.
Ravallion, M. (2001). Growth, inequality, and poverty: Looking beyond averages. In A.
Shorrocks and R.V.D. Hoeven (eds), Prospects for Pro-Poor Economic Development, pp. 62-80. New York: Oxford University Press.
Ravallion, M., Chen, S. (1997). What can new survey data tell Us about recent changes in distribution and poverty. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 357-382.
Schwartz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
Silva-Tabosa, F.J., de Carvalho-Castelar, P.U., and Irffi, G. (2016). Brazil, 1981-2013: the effects of economic growth and income inequality on poverty. CEPAL Review, 120, 153-170.
Sumner A., Hoy, C., and Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2020). Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty. WIDER Working Paper No. 2020/43, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research, Helsinki.
UNCTAD. (2020). The least developed countries report, 2020: Productive capacities for the new decade. UNCTAD/LDC/2020, Geneva.
UNCTAD. (2012). The least development countries report, 2012: Policies for inclusive and balanced growth. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Geneva.
UNCTAD. (2008). The least development countries report, 2008: Growth, poverty and the terms of development partnership. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Geneva.
United Nations. (2020). World economic situation and prospects, 2020. United Nations, New York.
Valensisi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind? The European Journal of Development Research, 32, 1535-1557.
Vanegas, M. (2022). Tourism, development economics, poverty alleviation and inequality. In Croes, R, and Yang, Y (eds.) A Modern Guide to Tourism Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, pp. 237-258.
Vanegas, M., and Roe, T. (2021). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: Tourism dynamics in 3 CAFTA-DR countries. Paper presented at the 6th World Research Summit for Tourism and Hospitality, University of Central Florida, 14-15, December.
Vanegas, M. (2018). Tourism, macroeconomics, growth, and the St. Louis equation. Tourism International Review, 22, 3-21.
Vanegas, M., Gartner, W., and Senauer, B. (2015). Tourism and poverty reduction: An economic sector analysis for Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Tourism Economics, 21(1), 159-182.
White, H. (1980). A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test of heteroscedasticity. Econometrica, 8, 817-838.
Yang, L. and Vizard, P. (2017). Multidimensional poverty and income inequality in the EU: An adjusted headcount approach. CASE paper 207/ LIP paper 4, LIP program, London: Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
Adelman, I., and Morris, C.T. (1973). Economic growth and social equity in developing countries. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.
Ahluwalia, M.S. (1976). Inequality, poverty and development. Journal of Development Economics, 3(4), 307-342.
Akaike, H. (1974). A new look at the statistical model identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19, 716-723.
Ali, W., Abdullah, A., and Azam, M. (2017). Re-visiting the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for Malaysia: Fresh evidence from ARDL bounds testing approach. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 77, 990-1000.
Attanasio, O., and Binelli, (2004). Inequality, growth and redistributive policies. Proceedings of the AFD-EUDN conference, pp, 179-213, Agence Française de Developpement.
Ayad, H. (2016). Poverty, inequality and economic growth in Algeria: An ARDL approach. Journal of Social and Economic statistics, 5(1), 1-20.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.M., and Goswami, G.G. (2003). A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners. Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 102-113.
Bayer, C., and Hanck, C. (2013). Combining non-cointegration tests. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 34, 83-95.
Benhabib, J., and Rustichini, A. (1996). Social conflict and growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 1, 125-142.
Bourguignon, F. (2003). The growth elasticity of poverty reduction: explaining heterogeneity across countries and time periods. In Eicher, T.S., and Turnovsky, S.J., eds, Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp, 3-26.
Bourguignon, F. (2004). The poverty-growth-inequality triangle. Working Paper No. 125, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi, India.
Breusch, T. (1978). Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models. Journal of Australia Economic Papers, 17, 334-355.
Brown, R.J., Durbin, J., and Evans, J. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relationships over time. Journal of Royal Statistics Society, B37, 149-163.
Cingano, F. (2014). Trends in income inequality and its impact on economic growth. OECD SEM Working paper No. 163, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 9(4), 1057-1071.
ECLAC. (2022). Social Panorama of Latin America, 2021. (LC/PUB.2021/17-p), Santiago, Chile
Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T., and Stock, J. (1996). Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root. Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
Engle, R.F. (1982). Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50, 987-1007.
Fosu, A. K. (2017). Growth, inequality, and poverty reduction in developing countries: Recent global evidence. Research in Economics, 71(2), 306-336.
Gallo, C. (2002). Economic growth and income inequality: Theoretical background and
empirical evidence. Working Paper No. 119, London: Development Planning Unit,
University College London.
Gelaw, F. (2010). The dynamic relationship among poverty, inequality, and growth in rural Ethiopia: A micro evidence. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics, 2(5), 197-208.
Gini, C. (1912). Variabilitá e mutabilitá: contributo allo studio delle distribuzioni e delle relazioni statistiche. Bologna: Tipografia di Paolo Cuppini.
Harris, R., and Sollis, R. (2003). Applied time series modelling and forecasting. West Sussex: Wiley.
Iniquez-Montiel, A.J., and Kurosacki, T. (2018). Growth, inequality and poverty dynamics in Mexico. Latin American Review, 27(12), 1-25.
Jarque, C.M., and Bera, A.K. (1980). Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Economics Letters, 6, 255-259.
Jalil, A., and Ma, Y. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Time series evidence from Pakistan and China. Journal of Economic Cooperation among Islamic Countries, 29, 29-68.
Kaldor, N. (1956). Alternative theories of distribution. Review of Economic Studies, 23(2), 83-100.
Kalwrij, A., and Verschoor, A. (2007). Not by growth alone: The role of the distribution of income in regional diversity in poverty reduction. European Economic Review, 51(4), 805-829.
Karagiannaki, E. (2017). The empirical relationship between poverty and inequality in rich and middle-income countries. CASE paper 206/ LIP paper 3, London: Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.
Kuznets, S. (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review XLV(1), 1-28.
Lee J., and Strazicich, M. (2003a). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, 33(4), 2483-2492.
Lee J., and Strazicich, M. (2003b). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economic Statistics, 85, 1082-1089.
Mansi, E., Hysa, E., Panait, M., and Voica, M.C. (2020). Poverty-A challenge for economic development? Evidences from Western Balkan countries and the European Union. Sustainability, 12(7754), 1-24.
Menegaki, A.N. (2019). The ARDL method in the energy growth nexus field: Best implementation strategy. Economies, 7(105), 1-16.
Mphuka, C., Kaonga, O., and Tembo, M. (2017). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: Estimating the growth elasticity of poverty in Zambia, 2006-2015. International Growth Center, reference number: F-41302-ZMB-1.
Narayan, P.K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: Evidence for cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990.
Narayan, P.K. (2004). Reformulating critical values for the Bounds F-statistics approach to cointegration: An application to the tourism demand model for Fiji. Department of Economics, Discussion Papers, ISSN 1441-5429 No. 02/04, Monash University, Victoria Australia.
Nasir, A.B. M., and Mridha, H.A. (2017). Does income inequality dampen growth effect on poverty? Evidence from the US county data. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(4), 167-177.
Papanek, G., and Kyn, O. (1986). The effect on income distribution of development, the growth rate and economic strategy. Journal of Development Economics, 23(1), 55-65.
Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of
level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Pesaran, M.H., and Pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive econometric analysis. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Ramsey J.B. (1969). Test for specification errors in classical linear test squares regression analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 31(Series B), 350-371.
Ravallion, M. (2005). A poverty-inequality trade-off? Journal of Economic Inequality, 2005(3), 169-181.
Ravallion, M. (2001). Growth, inequality, and poverty: Looking beyond averages. In A.
Shorrocks and R.V.D. Hoeven (eds), Prospects for Pro-Poor Economic Development, pp. 62-80. New York: Oxford University Press.
Ravallion, M., Chen, S. (1997). What can new survey data tell Us about recent changes in distribution and poverty. The World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 357-382.
Schwartz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
Silva-Tabosa, F.J., de Carvalho-Castelar, P.U., and Irffi, G. (2016). Brazil, 1981-2013: the effects of economic growth and income inequality on poverty. CEPAL Review, 120, 153-170.
Sumner A., Hoy, C., and Ortiz-Juarez, E. (2020). Estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty. WIDER Working Paper No. 2020/43, United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economic Research, Helsinki.
UNCTAD. (2020). The least developed countries report, 2020: Productive capacities for the new decade. UNCTAD/LDC/2020, Geneva.
UNCTAD. (2012). The least development countries report, 2012: Policies for inclusive and balanced growth. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Geneva.
UNCTAD. (2008). The least development countries report, 2008: Growth, poverty and the terms of development partnership. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Geneva.
United Nations. (2020). World economic situation and prospects, 2020. United Nations, New York.
Valensisi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and global poverty: Are LDCs being left behind? The European Journal of Development Research, 32, 1535-1557.
Vanegas, M. (2022). Tourism, development economics, poverty alleviation and inequality. In Croes, R, and Yang, Y (eds.) A Modern Guide to Tourism Economics. Edward Elgar Publishing: Cheltenham, UK, pp. 237-258.
Vanegas, M., and Roe, T. (2021). Economic growth, inequality and poverty: Tourism dynamics in 3 CAFTA-DR countries. Paper presented at the 6th World Research Summit for Tourism and Hospitality, University of Central Florida, 14-15, December.
Vanegas, M. (2018). Tourism, macroeconomics, growth, and the St. Louis equation. Tourism International Review, 22, 3-21.
Vanegas, M., Gartner, W., and Senauer, B. (2015). Tourism and poverty reduction: An economic sector analysis for Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Tourism Economics, 21(1), 159-182.
White, H. (1980). A heteroscedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test of heteroscedasticity. Econometrica, 8, 817-838.
Yang, L. and Vizard, P. (2017). Multidimensional poverty and income inequality in the EU: An adjusted headcount approach. CASE paper 207/ LIP paper 4, LIP program, London: Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion, LSE.