Fragilidad institucional y sostenibilidad fiscal en Centroamérica un enfoque cuántico y contrafactual estructural
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El estudio analiza la fragilidad institucional y la sostenibilidad fiscal en los países del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) mediante un enfoque cuántico y contrafactual. Se desarrolla un modelo funcional basado en la teoría cuántica de campos para estimar trayectorias metaestables de fragilidad soberana e identificar transiciones críticas entre regímenes de estabilidad. Además, se construye un índice ESG soberano mediante análisis factorial y se aplica el control sintético extendido para evaluar el impacto de reformas institucionales y eventos relevantes durante 2008–2023. Los resultados muestran que la calidad de la gobernanza, el control de la corrupción y la cohesión social reducen la vulnerabilidad fiscal, mientras que las debilidades institucionales amplifican los efectos de choques externos. En conjunto, el modelo propuesto constituye una herramienta empírica para anticipar escenarios de fragilidad estructural y orientar políticas de sostenibilidad macroinstitucional en Centroamérica.
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