Asia in the XXI century
Main Article Content
Abstract
This unavoidably impressionistic analysis of that part of the future of Asia that may already be read in its present, begins with a discussion of the so–called ‘Asian miracle’, of its diverging interpretations and of how it may continue during the next twenty or thirty years. Some aspects of the foreseeable demographic and economic evolution of Asia in the medium and long term are then presented. This is followed by a discussion of the implications of this evolution in terms of three main challenges that Asia must face if it is to succeed: natural resource use and the environment, the fight against poverty and, central to the success in responding to those two, governance. A last section discusses some political implications.
Downloads
Article Details
The authors acknowledge that the Revista de Fomento Social assumes as its own the intellectual property rights over their work and grant the journal the permissions of distribution and public communication of the same established in the Berlin, Bethesda and Budapest declarations; for this reason they accept that the work presented be distributed in open access, protecting the copyright under a "Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivativeWorks 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) license.
You may copy, use, disseminate, transmit and publicly display provided that:
Cite the authorship of the work, the publication in Revista de Fomento Social, issue, year and the pages where you found the information.
No commercial benefit may be obtained.
No derivative works may be made for commercial purposes that are not authorized by the journal.
Authors are encouraged to disseminate the article electronically (Revista de Fomento Social, number, year, pagination, ISSN, DOI, etc.), in order to favor its circulation and diffusion, increase its citation and reach among the academic community.
The information of the journal will be provided to Dulcinea
References
AMSDEN, ALICE H., (1979), “Taiwan”s Economic History: A Case of Etatisme and a Challenge to Dependency Theory”. Modern China, Vol. 5 No. 3 (July 1979), pp. 341–80.
— (1989) Asia”s New Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.
— (1994), “Why Isn’t the Whole World Experimenting with the East Asian Model to Develop? The East Asian Miracle”. World Development, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 627–633.
BRACKEN, PAUL, (2000), “Will China Be Number One?”. Time.com: Visions of the 21st century. Accesado en www.time.com/time/reports/v21/work/mag_china.html, el 15 de abril de 2004.
CHANDLER, CLAY, (2004), “Can China Keep the Lights On?”. FORTUNE, Vol. 149, No. 3, February 23, 2004, pp. 46–52.
ESCAP, (2002), Report on the Regional Survey on Ageing (June 2002). Acceso en www.globalaging.org/rural_aging/world/reporto.htm, el 28 de abril de 2004
HA–JOON CHANG, (2002), Kicking Away the Ladder: Development Strategy in Historical Perspective. London: Anthem Press.
HALIMI, SERGE, (2004), Le Grand Bond en Arrière: Comment l”Ordre Libéral s”Est Imposé au Monde. Paris : Librairie Arthème Fayard.
GUIMARÃES, JOÃO P. C., (1998), “Reassessing the Asian “miracle”“, en EIU Country Forecast 4th quarter 1998 – Asia and Australasia: Regional Overview, pp. 15–22. London: The Economist Intelligence Unit.
HERTSGAARD, MARK, (1997), “Our Real China Problem”. The Atlantic Monthly, Nov. 1997. Acceso en www.theatlantic.com/atlantic/issues/97nov/china. htm, el 11 de Abril de 1997.
HOGE, JR., JAMES F., (2004), “A Global Power Shift in the Making”. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 83, No. 4, July/August 2004.
KRUGMAN, PAUL, (1994), “The Myth of Asia”s Miracle”. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 6, November/December 1994.
KURLANTZIC, JOSHUA, (2002), “Is China”s Economic Boom a Myth?” The New Republic, 16 de diciembre de 2002. Accesado en www.thenewrepublic.com, el 6 de diciembre de 2002
MCRAE, HAMISH, (1994), The World in 2020. London: Harper Collins.
NACIONES UNIDAS, (2003a), “World Population 2002” (Tablas resumen de la variante media). Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Disponible en www.unpopulation.org.
PAGE, JOHN M., (1994), “The East Asian Miracle: An Introduction”. World Development, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 615–625.
PERKINS, DWIGHT H., (1994), “There Are At Least Three models of East Asian Development”. World Development, Vol. 22, No. 4, pp. 655–661.
PSIS – POPULATION AND SOCIAL INTEGRATION SECTION, (1998), Asia and the Pacific into the 21st Century: Prospects for Social Development. Bangkok: United Nations. Disponible en www.unescap.org/esid/publications/theme1998/part1.asp
TANDON, A., MURRAY, C. J. L., LAUER, J., EVANS, D., (2000), “Measuring overall health system performance for 191 countries”. Evidence and Information for Policy Discussion Paper No. 30. Geneva: World Health Organization.
UNITED NATIONS, (2003b), World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision – Highlights. ESA/P/WP 180, 26 February 2003. Disponible en www.unpopulation. org.
WADE, ROBERT, (1988), “The Role of Government in Overcoming Market Failure: Taiwán, Republic of Korea and Japan”, en H. HUGHES (ed.), Achieving Industrialization in East Asia, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, pp. 129–163.
— (1990), Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of the Government in East Asian Industrialization. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
WORLD BANK, (1993), The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
YOUNG, ALWYN, (1992), “A tale of two cities: factor accumulation and technical change in Hong Kong and Singapore” en O. BLANCHARD AND S. FISCHER (eds.), NBER Macroeconomic Annual 1992, MIT Press, Cambridge (Mass).
— (1995), “The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 110, No. 3 (Aug., 1995), pp. 641–680.
